Key findings indicate that by 2040, the initial costs for BEVs will align with those of gasoline vehicles if battery costs can reach cell-level $70/kWh (or pack-level $84/kWh).
Why are battery prices different between 2020 & 2040?
Most of the differences in prices are likely due the different assumptions for the cost of batteries and fuel cell systems between 2020 and 2040 and/or the approach of projecting the manufacturing cost and applying a markup to get the showroom price.
How much will battery electric cars cost in 2026?
Our researchers forecast that average battery prices could fall towards $80/kWh by 2026, amounting to a drop of almost 50% from 2023, a level at which battery electric vehicles would achieve ownership cost parity with gasoline-fueled cars in the US on an unsubsidized basis. Source: Company data, Wood Mackenzie, SNE Research, Goldman Sachs Research
How many people will a battery industry employ by 2040?
A battery industry that supports domestic demand for EVs could employ 100,000 people by 2040: 35,000 in cell manufacturing and 65,000 in the battery supply chain. [footnote 25] This represents an opportunity to create many highly paid, productive jobs across the country, from mining to processing and manufacturing to recycling.
When we talk about the battery from, let's say, 2023 to all the way to 2030, roughly over 40% of the decline is just coming from lower commodity costs, because we had a lot of green inflation during 2020 to 2023. The level of those metal prices was very high. What's enabling battery makers to increase energy density so dramatically?
Global average battery prices declined from $153 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2022 to $149 in 2023, and they're projected by Goldman Sachs Research to fall to $111 by the close of this year.
Will fuel cells be cheaper than gasoline cars in 2040?
For FCVs, achieving cost parity with gasoline cars before 2040 will be challenging unless the cost of fuel cells decreases to about $40/kW through high-volume production (>500000 units). Regarding 5-year TCOs, both BEVs and FCVs are expected to be close to or slightly lower than those of gasoline vehicles by 2040 across all LDV market segments.